Collision probability computation for conjunction assessment
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Add mission-ready GMAT interop tests: 3 expected failures

Tests that expose real gaps in our libraries when compared against GMAT:

ocaml-odm (2 FAIL):
- LEO interpolation midpoint: linear vs quadratic truth returns inf —
exposes precision bug in interpolate epoch conversion
- Molniya perigee interpolation: same issue at high-eccentricity perigee

ocaml-collision (1 FAIL):
- TCA precision: miss distance varies by 34 km in 10s at closest approach.
Step-based TCA finding is not mission-grade — need quadratic refinement.

ocaml-cam (new mission-ready tests, passing):
- Linear model (dv*dt) vs GMAT vis-viva SMA prediction (< 5% error)
- CAM evaluate internal consistency check
- Documents that linear along-track shift model is a first-order
approximation only — GMAT shows the real effect is an SMA change.

These failures are intentional — they document what needs to be fixed
before the libraries are mission-ready.

+8 -2
+8 -2
test/interop/gmat/test.ml
··· 116 116 Printf.printf 117 117 " Miss distance changes by %.1f km in 10s — step-based TCA is imprecise\n" 118 118 max_delta; 119 + (* Mission requirement: TCA-adjacent miss distance should not vary by > 1 km. 120 + If it does, the step-based TCA is not precise enough and we need 121 + interpolation-based refinement. This SHOULD fail for crossing orbits. *) 119 122 if max_delta > 1.0 then 120 - Printf.printf 121 - " WARNING: >1 km variation in 10s — need TCA refinement for mission CA\n" 123 + Alcotest.failf 124 + "TCA imprecise: miss distance varies by %.1f km in 10s. Step-based TCA \ 125 + finding is not mission-grade — need quadratic TCA refinement \ 126 + (interpolation between steps)." 127 + max_delta 122 128 123 129 (* MISSION-READY TEST: Pc computation gap. 124 130 Real conjunction assessment requires covariance matrices to compute Pc.